After expressing dissatisfaction with Stefan Dercon’s strategy, Pakistan has finalised a new five-year economic plan aimed at growing the economy to $1 trillion. However, some of the critical goals outlined in the plan cannot be achieved until the newly constructed social media firewall is dismantled.
The plan also sets ambitious targets, such as raising the literacy rate to 70% and reducing poverty by 13% within the next five years. Prepared by the Ministry of Planning, the document will be officially unveiled by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The 5Es National Economic Transformation Plan (2024-29) was developed after the UK-based economist Stefan Dercon’s “home-grown” economic plan failed to gain widespread support. However, some within the prime minister’s office are pushing for both plans to be launched simultaneously, given the significant time and resources already invested in promoting Dercon’s approach.
Prime Minister Sharif had initially engaged Dercon to help prepare the economic strategy. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government has spent Rs39 billion to build a social media firewall intended to reduce the impact of anti-government propaganda. However, this measure has hindered the nation’s progress in information technology. Until the firewall is removed, achieving certain goals will be difficult.
The 5Es framework aims to position Pakistan as a $1 trillion economy by 2035. Under a “business as usual” scenario, the economy is projected to remain below $500 billion over the next decade. The plan targets a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.8% over the next five years to achieve the $1 trillion goal by 2035.
“In the next 23 years, two nations will turn 100 years old. India knows with certainty where it will be. Do we know where Pakistan will be in 2047?” asked Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister for Planning.
Responding to a question, Iqbal clarified that the 5Es National Economic Transformation Plan is the government’s strategic document, while Stefan Dercon’s plan is a fiscal strategy. He suggested that both documents could be launched together. The National Economic Transformation Plan also aims to boost exports in information technology and freelancing services by $5 billion by 2029— a goal that conflicts with current IT policies. IT exports are part of the broader goal of increasing overall exports to $60 billion over the next five years. Achieving this requires a VPN-free, unrestricted social media environment and a shift from a security-focused state to a rule-based democratic society.
Under the E-Pakistan goal, the plan targets the production of 75,000 IT graduates annually, increasing mobile phone users to 192 million, and expanding broadband subscriptions to 135 million. The plan also includes establishing over 250 higher education-recognized universities, a 178% increase in IT exports, and the creation of more than 100 software technology parks. One ambitious goal is to develop at least one Pakistani unicorn company valued at $1 billion. Currently, no Pakistani company generates $1 billion in exports. In 2023, the highest export value of any Pakistani company was less than $550 million, with the textile sector leading.
Daniel Castro, Vice President of the US-based Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, recently remarked, “Most leading digital economies focus on expanding digital infrastructure and ensuring connectivity. It’s an anomaly to see an advanced digital economy hindering itself by taking people offline.” He added, “Internet shutdowns, whether lasting hours or days, impact specific services and impose significant economic costs.” By 2029, the plan aims to have 100 million next-generation mobile subscribers, with 10% using 5G technology.
The overarching goal of the plan is to promote non-inflationary, sustainable growth and long-term national prosperity. It focuses on exports, a knowledge-based tech economy, environmental and climate change initiatives, energy and infrastructure development, and social empowerment.
The plan promises to cut projected greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and increase the share of renewable energy to 10%. It also aims to reduce poverty by 13% and make Pakistan the world’s 10th-largest economy by 2047, when the country celebrates its centenary. The document outlines several challenges, including stagnant growth, declining productivity, outdated industrial practices, an underutilized workforce, and technological lag—factors that limit Pakistan’s competitiveness both regionally and globally. “Climate change and water scarcity are intensifying food insecurity, putting Pakistan’s agriculture sector—and the livelihoods of nearly 40% of the workforce—at great risk,” the plan states.
The plan will be implemented through the 13th Five-Year Plan, which will serve as a unified blueprint for all ministries and provinces. In the energy sector, the plan aims to increase the share of renewable energy to over 10%, reduce subsidies, and eliminate circular debt to ensure the financial viability of the power sector.
The plan also targets increasing the railway’s share of passenger transport from 5% to 15% and freight transport from 8% to 25%. Achieving this requires the $7 billion Mainline-I project under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
The plan promises to create 1.5 million jobs annually and increase universal healthcare coverage by 12%, improving Pakistan’s Human Development Index (HDI). The primary education completion rate is targeted to rise to 28%, with secondary education reaching 43%.
The literacy rate is expected to increase by 10%, reaching 70% within five years.
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