According to Business Monitor International (BMI), an arm of the Fitch credit ratings agency, incarcerated PTI leader Imran Khan “will likely remain in prison for the foreseeable future,” despite winning legal appeals in April and June. The latest country risk report for Pakistan, obtained by Dawn.com, includes 10-year forecasts up to 2033 and analyzes macroeconomic and political factors to highlight emerging trends in the country.
Imran’s sentence in the Toshakhana reference was suspended on April 1, and he was acquitted by the Islamabad High Court (IHC) in the cipher case in June. Despite these legal victories and acquittals in several other cases since May 9, 2023, when his initial arrest sparked nationwide unrest, Imran faces ongoing challenges. An Islamabad district and sessions court recently accepted appeals by Imran and his spouse in the Iddat case, but shortly after their acquittal in that case, they were re-arrested by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) in a new Toshakhana case.
“Although opposition leader Imran Khan has recently won several legal appeals, we expect that he will remain in prison for the foreseeable future,” stated the agency in its country risk report. The report also noted analysts’ surprise at judicial decisions that favoured Imran Khan, despite expectations of government alignment in legal matters.
The agency further explained that “even if Pakistan’s typically government-aligned judicial system were to overturn all of Imran Khan’s 100-plus charges, it anticipates the government would initiate new proceedings rather than allow the popular opposition leader to be released.”
Regarding the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) program, the firm anticipated that the coalition government led by Shehbaz Sharif would “remain in control for the next 18 months and successfully implement IMF-directed fiscal reforms.”
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BMI outlined two main reasons for its expectation that the coalition would persist in the medium term: “support from influential quarters for the PML(N)-led government” and the inability of Imran’s supporters to orchestrate a large-scale protest movement.
The company also noted that the government “is only likely to collapse if there is a significant escalation in violence or a severe economic crisis triggering widespread protests.”
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